New King, Deep State: Thailand

This article presents an interesting analysis of the first year of King Vajilalongkorn's reign. Two main points raised are Thailand's transition towards 'neoabsolutism' and the Thai system of the 'Dual State'.

Regarding the shift towards neoabsolutism, the writer draws interpretations from the constitution promulgation ceremony, removal of the 1932 revolution commemorative plaque, and increased use of the Lese-Majeste law. While the writer describes the constitution promulgation ceremony in detail (oftentimes with hyperbolic interjections) that makes the process seem unnecessarily pompous, I wonder if it truly the first glimpse of neoabsolutism as the writer is implying, or simply the following of established procedures to create a sense of normalcy in a potentially volatile transition period. Nevertheless, the point about 'rewriting history' to associate the constitution with the monarchy, rather than the 1932 revolutionaries is a compelling worthy of further discussion.

Regarding the 'Dual State', the writer makes the claim that there are two simultaneous systems in Thailand: 'the one represented by the government (the "visible" or "normative state") and the one represented by the bureaucracy and the monarchy (the "deep state" or "prerogative state").' He further cites the new constitution as establishing an allocation of power between the two, shifting the weight towards the 'Deep State'. As we discussed in class, the political systems of countries in Southeast Asia do not tend to follow the Western moulds. In a country where military coups and temporary juntas are becoming normal, is it possible to interpret this redistribution of power in the dual state as attempting to acknowledge and lay down frameworks for such events?

The article ends with a look to the future asking about the sustainability of the system in the long term. The article notes that it has worked 'in a mild form in the last decade.' However, one must note that the late King Bhumibol was hospitalized for the vast majority of that time. With a new king soon to be coronated, we might see the balance of power shift, as foreshadowed in the earlier part of the article.

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As a side note, I sent this article to my father (who currently lives in Thailand) via iMessage. Echoing the theme of strengthened lese-majeste laws, his response was "the article is interesting. But as in the footnote, I decline to discuss in here." Are we observing the manifestation of lese-majeste laws as self-censorship here?