Obama and Suu Kyi Optimistic About Peace in Myanmar

What a perfect time for this blog post: just yesterday, Obama officially lifted all remaining U.S. imposed sanctions on Myanmar! While the restrictions have been easing over time, more or less in parallel with Suu Kyi's increased efforts towards establishing peace in Myanmar, they are officially gone now. The biggest change between the sanctions existing a couple of days ago and those existing now (none) is that those remaining were primarily sanctions against companies and businesses run by the military. The only remaining restrictions it seems are those against particular individuals involved in the drug trade.

This is a very interesting move, both from Obama's perspective and even from Suu Kyi's. Obama stated: "I have determined that the situation that gave rise to the national emergency with respect to Burma has been significantly altered by Burma's substantial advances to promote democracy, including historic elections in November 2015". But unfortunately, it does seem as if there has been minimal tangible improvement in military-ethnic group relations since 2015 and even since the PPC a month ago. Myanmar is a quickly growing market but the United States surely doesn't have a need to tap into it, and so I'm wondering how a show of good faith and efforts towards establishing peace are sufficient for lifting sanctions if they haven't stemmed the violence that is being addressed. Indeed, critics of the move argue that there is now less leverage to use against Tatmadaw in establishing peace. But that is not to say that Suu Kyi is at fault.

From her perspective, she almost certainly wants U.S. investment in Myanmar, telling Americans to come and "make profits" now that the sanctions have been fully lifted. But in 2015, despite the existence of sanctions, Myanmar had one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and so while U.S. investment would have been beneficial, I find it difficult in my limited knowledge to believe that it would be necessary, especially if viewing it as a zero-sum game with control over the military.

Maybe she and Obama hope that this will function as a gesture of goodwill towards the Tatmadaw, or perhaps as a way to provide them with another outlet for development (besides forcibly taking over land??), but I'm not really sure. I guess we'll see in the months to come what comes of all this...